Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 634 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weather pattern continues into early next week. - Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight, primarily across NW Kansas into NW Missouri. - Marginal risk for strong to severe storms on Saturday and Sunday, once again primarily for NW Missouri. - Best chance for severe weather comes Monday afternoon into late Monday night. All severe hazards will be possible. - Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible. - Chances for strong to severe storms may linger into Tuesday. - Hot temperatures expected today through Monday. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 Current H5 analysis shows a closed mid/upper low centered over the northeast US with another (and much deeper - 532 dam) closed low centered over central Manitoba with a band of 50 knot westerly H5 winds extending from the Pacific NW into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Further south across our CWA, relatively weak (less than 30 knot) zonal westerly flow continues at the H5 level. However, a 45 knot southwesterly low level jet has developed early this morning, which has helped to generate a few relatively high based showers and thunderstorms across the region, with these likely to exit to the east by later this morning. Later this morning, a warm front should lift southwest to northeast through the CWA, with south southwesterly surface flow increasing out ahead of a pair of surface lows across eastern Nebraska and the OK Panhandle. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave trough is progged to move out of New Mexico into Texas. This will yield strong temperature and moisture advection into the CWA, with temperatures likely rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points increasing from their present values in the mid 40s to mid 50s to the lower 60s by this afternoon/evening. Today's record high of 91 degrees (set in 1941) will be threatened today at MCI, with the current forecast showing 91 degrees. Warm temperatures and 60 degree dew points should yield 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MU CAPE across the warm sector this afternoon/evening. Most recent CAM guidance suggests convective initiation by late this afternoon into early evening near the cold front across SE Nebraska into SW Iowa, with these storms likely growing upscale relatively quickly into clusters or even a well developed MCS and potentially moving into NE Kansas and NW Missouri by late tonight, where up to 30 knots of deep layer shear may be present. These storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard, followed by large hail. Additional convective development is possible early Saturday morning as the low level jet strengthens once more. The most recent SPC Day 1 convective outlook highlights areas north of a Leavenworth to Kirksville line within a slight risk for severe weather, with a marginal risk for the remainder of the CWA. Warm and moderately moist conditions continue into Saturday and Saturday evening, with WSW mid level flow continuing downstream of yet another trough moving into the Desert Southwest and a surface boundary draped across southern Iowa into SE Nebraska and into northern Kansas. While portions of NE Kansas, NW Missouri, and northern Missouri are within a marginal risk for severe storms for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, the higher threat should remain to the north and northwest where conditions will be more favorable. The active pattern continues into Sunday, as an upper level trough begins to eject across the Intermountain West with a more subtle shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains. This will result in deepening low pressure across eastern CO into western KS with strengthening southerly flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting northward into the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. However, once again the better severe weather setup looks to remain northwest of our CWA across east central Nebraska, NW Iowa, SW Minnesota, and SE South Dakota. That being said, strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out for our area, especially for far NW Missouri. As we head into Monday, the mid/upper trough should take on a negative tilt and eject across the central and northern Plains with an impressive 70 knot 500 mb SW oriented jet streak developing over NE Kansas and into SW Iowa, with 50 knot H5 flow overspreading much of our CWA. Very strong southerly low level flow should be present Monday afternoon out ahead of an approaching cold front, with sustained surface winds on the order of 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures are projected to reach the lower 90s by mid to late Monday afternoon, with continued moisture advection increasing dew points into the upper 60s. This hot and moist airmass should yield moderate to high instability, which will be paired with strong deep layer shear thanks to the increased mid/upper level winds overspreading the region, allowing for well organized updrafts capable of producing severe weather. An increasing southwesterly low level jet Monday evening/night should yield higher SRH values thanks to increasingly cyclonically curved hodographs in the low levels. Thus, all severe hazards will likely be in play for Monday afternoon into late Monday night. Unknowns at this time for our CWA include whether or not storms can/will initiate in the open warm sector, the evolution/timing of the surface boundaries, and how quickly storms will grow upscale into clusters or a line of storms/MCS. In addition to the severe threat, a plume of 1.6 to 1.8 PWATs will yield a heavy rainfall threat, with WPC introducing a slight risk for excessive rainfall for much of the CWA. Guidance remains varied with respect to the timing of the frontal passage through the region. If the cold front doesn't move through until sometime during the day on Tuesday, the severe threat could linger into Tuesday. .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026 A few light showers are ongoing west of IXD, but the terminals should remain dry this morning outside of maybe a few sprinkles. VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least late evening, with southerly winds around 12 knots and occasional gusts up to 18 knots this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms at STJ between roughly 6z and 9z Saturday, and at the KC metro terminals between 7z and 10z Saturday. It is possible that there could be brief VIS reductions to MVFR if moderate to heavy rain were to impact any terminal. .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...BMW