Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Thunderstorms are expected to move into the region early Tuesday morning, and once again mid-day Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is the main threat, with flood watch in effect for much of the region. Cooler conditions late week with additional storm chances. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Active weather pattern setting up over the next 36 hours or so as low pressure currently over the four corners region lifts northeast into the plains tomorrow. 30-40 knot low level jet is expected to develop tonight across the central plains ushering moisture northward PWAT values are expected to climb towards 2 by 12Z, near the daily max for this time of year. As leading edge of 850 theta-e advection builds into the region from the west, expect a broken line of showers and storms to push from west to east across the region. CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg lifting from 850 hpa are expected along the KS/Missouri state line, with weaker instability and shear farther to the east. Best shear largely remains across northwestern Missouri, where a marginally severe storm is possible. With increasing low level moisture, expect stratus to try to develop throughout the day behind the initial line of storms. This stratus may inhibit destabilization somewhat throughout out the day. Capping inversion looks weaker across northern Missouri and may see off and on showers there throughout the morning into the early afternoon. As the upper low moves from western to eastern KS tomorrow, expect cap to weaken and a second round of thunderstorms redevelops across the area. CAPE values look to re-destabilize to 1000-1500 J/kg along and ahead of a slow moving cold front across the area. Expect storms to redevelop mid-day across eastern KS quickly organizing into a linear convective mode. With MBE vectors being very weak, potential exists for training and back building of storms across the area. These factors combined with precipitable water values will create the potential for flooding across the region. Have issued a flood watch 12Z Tuesday- 12Z Wednesday. Storms are expected to be very efficient rain producers, and could lead to localized flash flooding, but dry antecedent conditions has kept flash flood guidance in the 2.5-4 range for three and six hours. Shortwave is expected to lift northeast through the region Thursday evening but re-intensifying low level jet in advance of the front may lead to overrunning event leading to broadening area of showers behind the front. Have a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall in the forecast, with locally higher amounts expected. Cooler conditions are expected through the remainder of the week with additional short waves tracking through the region leading to additional chances of passing showers and thunderstorms. With strengthening upper level jet across the central US through Friday, a few of the storms could be on the strong side with damaging winds or large hail being the main threats. .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday morning are expected to lead to 0.1-0.5 across the region. Additional storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening leading to very heavy rainfall. The heaviest rainfall with this activity is expected along ahd ahead of a slow moving cold front. A flood watch has been issued for much of the region from 7 AM Tuesday-7 AM Wednesday. Contingency forecasts from the MBRFC suggest the potential for minor-moderate river flooding across much of the area. .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Scattered cumulus developing across the area will remain through sunset. Initial round of thunderstorms looks to build into the region tonight after 06Z. With increasing moisture, ceilings will lower into the low MVFR to IFR range with successive rounds of showers and thunderstorms. .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for MOZ002008-011017-020025-028033-037040-043046-053- 054. KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-102105. DISCUSSION...BT AVIATION...BT