Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 311 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and potentially through overnight hours. - Individual cells will produce very heavy rainfall that may lead to localized excessive runoff. - Widespread, dangerous flash flooding is not anticipated. Heat index values near 105 along and south of Highway today. Dangerous heat builds through the entire area Sunday through Wednesday. - Highest heat index values in the 105 to 110 range look likely. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Isolated to scattered storms have develop in the afternoon heat and humidity. There is no real discernible boundary in the area to focus storms, rather it seems like areas hit convective temperatures given the very humid conditions. However, storms will produce outflow boundaries and that will lead to subsequent storms so have broadbrushed chance PoPs in for our eastern half to two-thirds of the forecast areas, mainly east of I-35. The chances for severe weather look low but with moderate to strong CAPE and a very moist profile, could see some strong winds at the surface. Otherwise, with precipitable water values still in excess of 2, localized very heavy rainfall is expected. With more isolated to scattered coverage of storms, the threat of widespread flash flooding looks low. But FFG values are very low due to the recent widespread rainfall, and that could result in localized excessive runoff/ flooding. Storms may linger into the evening and overnight hours but with no discernible boundary to focus anything, it may be more isolated to scattered in nature as the low-level jet restrengthens and pumps moisture northward. And again, because of the lack of focus, the threat of more widespread flash flooding is low. However, localized excessive rainfall will continue to be a concern given the environment. Heat index values along and south of Highway 50 are near or just above heat advisory levels but with storms developing, see no need to adjust the heat advisory for today. For Sunday into the first half of the next week, the broad upper ridge that has been over the southern US, centered over the Southeast, will consolidate and build into the central US. With the ridge building/ strengthening into the area, the storm track should be pushed north of the area. So it seems more likely well see dangerous heat develop with little or no chance of being interrupted by cloud debris or convection from any MCS that moves into the area. Though cant completely rule out some afternoon storms, even that seems unlikely given increasing mid- level temperatures. Regarding our heat advisory for Sunday through Tuesday, plan to keep that going as is with this forecast. Its possible, as confidence increases in actually hitting criteria for extreme heat (110 heat index for two days and overnight lows 75 or higher -or- 4 days of heat advisory criteria). Meeting one of those thresholds seems more likely Monday into Tuesday. For Wednesday, the ridge breaks down some leading to the potential for storm to move back into northern MO. So if the heat headlines need to be extended into Wednesday, the most likely area would be along and south of the Missouri River. For the later half of the week, the upper ridge gets shunted well south and cooler air settle into the area from the north. This may also lead to increased chances for precipitation, especially into Thursday, before .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds remain mostly southerly through the day today. There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. However confidence is high enough to keep them out of the TAF as they are expected to remain east of the terminals. .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001008-011017-020025-028033-037040-043046-053- 054. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ033-039-040- 043046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025- 057-060-102105. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060. DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Collier