Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 537 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry Thanksgiving today. - Majority of Friday will be dry with a storm system arriving Friday night - Chances for wintry precipitation have expanded. 4-7 inches of snow is possible across far NE MO (including the Kirksville area). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this area. Other areas could see 0.5-3 inches of snow. - Some uncertainties remain with the potential for a shifting storm track, and a fine line between light snow and more notable accumulating snow, and chances for rain undercutting potential snow totals. - Road travel impacts are likely late Friday through Saturday especially along I-35, US-36, and US-65. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Overview Dry and cool for Thanksgiving day. Temperatures remain below normal in the low to mid 40s. Moving on to the expected storm system this weekend. Firstly, much of the daylight hours Friday remain dry and travel impact free (locally speaking). The storm system is expected to move in during the evening and overnight period. Impactful weather is expected to continue through much of Saturday vacating the area by Saturday overnight into Sunday. The area of notable accumulating snow has expanded and looks to encompass areas from Rockport, MO SE through Moberly and points northeast. Current snowfall forecasts for NW MO range from 4-7 inches where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued. Observable road travel impacts are likely along I-35, US-36, and US- 65 in this area. Accumulating snow is becoming more likely across the area sans the Truman Lake region. Much of this is likely to be more limited to grassy surfaces as ground temperatures will continue to be decently warm enough to slow accumulations. General trends have been moving this system southward thus shifting the axis of heaviest snow with it. Detailed Discussion (Confidence, Uncertainties, etc.) Of course, being the first substantial storm of the year (for us) in a seasonal transition environment - it's going to be complicated... The good news is that vertical profiles keep temperatures from the surface to 800mb either above or below freezing with limited oscillations between the 0C isotherm. This keeps precipitation types fairly simple between rain, a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow, as well as straight snow (read little chance for freezing rain/ice). Satellite imagery shows our culprit system working its way on shore on the Washington coast. As this wave moves on shore, ridging across the central CONUS enables steady moisture transport (and some warm air) across the front range of the Rockies. The upper wave is expected to flatten out stretching over the Rockies encouraging the development of a leeward midlevel wave Friday afternoon. Rapid fronto and cyclogenesis quickly tap into the available moisture pool and begin developing snow showers across the upper Plains. Simultaneously, the southern pressure gradient tightens expediting flow of moisture into the region. By late Friday, the low will have dug deep enough south to entice the development of showers across the area. Frontal boundaries are expected to set up with the warm front somewhere across far northern MO and southern IA, and a cold front across the western side of the system. The placement of these frontal boundaries will be critical in anticipated rain/snow amounts. Confidence is high that this system will likely pass through the region. Most guidance passes the center of the low through the southern side of the region. Confidence is also high that we will see a transition of precipitation throughout the storm's residency in the area. As mentioned earlier, vertical profiles do look to stay fairly stark between rain, wintry mix (rain, sleet, snow), and snow. Confidence is also growing in accumulating snowfall and potentially notable accumulations across northeast MO. Model guidance has been steadily increasing snowfall potential particularly around the Kirksville area where guidance averages around 5 inches ranging from 3-7 inches of snow anticipated. Areas where 5 inches of snow are possible are highlighted in the current Winter Storm Watch. This does not mean that this area will be upgraded to a warning as forecasts are updated. Winter weather products will have to be curated to cover potential impacts from this system, especially during the upcoming busty travel weekend. On to the uncertainties, of course, one of the primary uncertainties is the track of the system. Over the course of the past several ensemble model guidance runs, the track of the system has been shifting further south. This has resulted in several things including increased chances for accumulating snow as well as increased chances for cooler temperature. One other variable this has introduced is an invasion of drier air to the norther which might increase snow liquid ratios which when given the ample moisture expected in the area, leads to high snowfall totals. This area of dry air is likely to affect areas north of US-36. The dynamic nature of the system as it progress across the area is another factor that could significantly affect perception totals. The warm front deviating north or south, the cold front arriving later or earlier, will greatly affect snow potential. If the front moves too far north, we will experience more warm air, rain, and thus lower snow totals. If it does not move north enough, more snowfall is likely, and there is a chance that far NW MO could see even more snow than forecasted. For the KC metro, most precipitation is expected to be rain. The best chance for snow for the KC metro and points south is expected on the backside of the cold front in which precipitation is expected to transition to snow. Accumulations are expected to remain under an inch with most accumulations expected on grassy surfaces. Ground temperatures are expected to remain decently warm cutting into snow totals. That said, a tenth of a half an inch of snow is not out of the question. Of course, the deviations mentioned before in the forecast discussion will play a critical role in the amount of rain and/or snow the KC metro might experience. Looking further, tomorrow's system is expected to vacate the area by Sunday morning. Another system moves through the region Monday, but several uncertainties remain with this subsequent system. Just between yesterday's run and today's the system has shifted precipitation from south of I-70 to north of I-70. Much of this fluctuation is likely due to how ensemble members are handling the previous system and the synoptic resolution of its passing. As the high resolution short term picture comes into range today, the extended picture will gain some clarity. .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Some high BKN to OVC clouds are expected to pass through the terminal midday. Winds remain light generally northwest through the period. .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for MOZ003-005008-015017-024-025. KS...None. DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...Pesel