Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and windy today. - Record highs likely on Monday, with gusty southerly winds once again. - Cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather not expected. - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible to likely Wednesday through Saturday, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 The warm up is well underway with strong WAA this afternoon being enhanced by a deepening surface low across the western Plains. This will drive afternoon highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal into the upper 60s to mid 70s. WAA will continue tonight with lows only falling into the 50s to near 60 which is near the normal highs for the end of March. Tomorrow, a upper level trough will dig from the Canadian Rockies into the northern High Plains forcing a cold front into the central Plains. Continued strong WAA out a head of this front under quasi-zonal flow aloft will drive highs into record breaking territory into the mid to upper 80s (Kansas City record high on Monday is 82 set in 1986). Monday night into Tuesday the upper level trough will move through the extreme northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a sagging cold front into the area Tuesday. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s across northwest Missouri where the front will pass earlier in the day to the low to mid 80s across the southern CWA where the front will pass later in the evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday as it moves into the area. The severe threat with this system looks low as MUCAPE values will only range between 500-1000J/Kg, with weak forcing along the front and the better upper level support north and east of the area. Heavy rain will be possible however with PWATs ranging between 1.25-1.50. Tuesday night the surface front will be just south of the forecast area along the I-44 Corridor. A nocturnal LLJ overriding the front will continue shower and thunderstorm chances with the best chances across the southern CWA (80-90) with lesser chances across the northern CWA (30-50). .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday as a the aforementioned LLJ never weakens during the day Wednesday and the frontal boundary just south of the may even try to lift back northward into the southern CWA. Again, any severe threat looks low but additional heavy rain chances, with PWATs still hovering around 1.50, will be possible and may lead to localized flooding as well as minor river flooding. Wednesday night into Thursday a upper level shortwave will move from the eastern Rockies through the local area continuing shower and thunderstorm chances. The front, still across the southern CWA will be the focus for continued heavy rain chances with flooding continuing to be the main concern. A welcome break from the precipitation looks like it will occur Thursday afternoon into Friday as the cold front finally pushes south and east of the area and a weak surface ridge builds into the region. The break, however, will be shortlived as another upper level trough moves from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains forcing a cold front into the area late Friday. This will bring additional storm chances Friday afternoon through Friday night. The 00Z EC is slower than the 12Z GFS with this system and holds precipitation in through Saturday where as the GFS is dry. Consequently, the NBM produces 60-80 PoPs however, the system appear more progress with the most recent run so Saturday may be dry. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 40s across northern Missouri behind the front to the lower 60s across the south near the frontal boundary. Highs Thursday will be near normal in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs Friday ahead of the cold front will rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s falling back into the 60s Saturday behind the front. .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026 VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with sct mid-lvl clouds thru 00Z. Otrw...just a few high clouds are fcst late in the pd. Winds will be out of the south btn 15-20kts with gusts 25-30kts thru 00Z when winds will wkn to 10-15kts. Winds will again incr aft 14Z-15Z to around 15kts with gusts 20-25kts. .CLIMATE... Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Record High Temperatures March 30 KMCI 82/1986 KSTJ 86/1968 .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM...73 AVIATION...73 CLIMATE...BT